Aquaholiks at the 2026 J/70 North Americans

Course weather · Sun 1 Nov · final day

Updated 3:05 PM EST from 9 HRRR runs (cycles 00–17Z). First warning 11:00 AM, racing window 10:00 AM–3:30 PM.

Expect to wait, with no race the likeliest result: ENE 4 kt at the 11:00 first warning fades to NNE 2 kt by the 14:00 last warning, under 5 kt in 12 of 12 runs. Since 06:15 the last holdout came down (11 of 12 then); little else moved. ECMWF and GFS are lighter, 3 kt. At 09:00 newest HRRR runs say 5 to 7 kt, older 8 to 10; only 5 kt holding at 11:00 changes the call.

At the first warning · 11:00 AM · 8 runs

4 kt (3–5 kt, P10–P90)

Direction: NE 52° true, ±17°
Gusts: 5 kt, up to 6 kt
No start: 88% · 7 of 8
light (under 5 kt) 88%, heavy 0%

<5 kt 88%
5–12 kt 13%
12–18 kt 0%
18–25 kt 0%
>25 kt 0%

Shift of 15° or more: 57%· 4 of 7 runs agree
Median timing 11:05 AM (window 10:55 AM–11:35 AM)
Side and shore bias: Right side little difference (right stronger in 0%, left 13%)
East shore little difference (east stronger in 0%, west 25%)

Current

Tolly Point
Slack 12:35 PM
Thomas Point
Max flood 10:03 AM (0.3 kt) · Slack 12:45 PM

Models

Model	11:00 AM	Shift
HRRR 6	ENE 4(2–5)	4/411:05 AM
NAM 3 km 3	NE 4(4–5)	0/3
ECMWF ENS 50	ENE 4(4–6)	–
GEFS 31	ENE 4(3–5)	–
ECMWF IFS 1	NE 4	–
ECMWF AIFS 1	–	–
GFS 1	ENE 4	–

Course-mean wind speed from 09:00 to 16:30 EST, HRRR 6 + NAM 3 runs. At the 11:00 first warning the median is 4 kt (80% of runs 3–5 kt). The median peaks at 6 kt at 09:00. 4 of 7 runs shift 15° or more around 11:05. — Wind speed on the course

Course-mean wind direction from 09:00 to 16:30, HRRR 6 + NAM 3 runs. At the first warning the median is NE 052°. No run shows a persistent shift. — Wind direction on the course

HRRR, 6 runs: 11:00 ENE 4 (2–5) kt; shift 4/4 ~11:05. NAM 3 km, 3 runs: 11:00 NE 4 (4–5) kt; shift 0/3. ECMWF ENS, 50 runs: 11:00 ENE 4 (4–6) kt; shift –. GEFS, 31 runs: 11:00 ENE 4 (3–5) kt; shift –. ECMWF IFS, 1 run: 11:00 NE 4 kt; shift –. ECMWF AIFS, 1 run: no first-warning figure; shift –. GFS, 1 run: 11:00 ENE 4 kt; shift –. — Each model at the first warning and on later days

Map of Racing area off the Severn mouth, Tolly Point to Thomas Point with the forecast course area. At 11:00 the median wind is NE 4 kt. At 11:05 the median wind is NE 4 kt. L and R: left and right sides of the course looking upwind (NE) at 11:00. Right side −0.2 kt vs left. Right 0.5 kt+ stronger in 0% · 0 of 8 runs; left in 13% · 1 of 8. Open bay (east) vs Annapolis shore (west): bay −0.4 kt. Bay 0.5 kt+ stronger in 0% · 0 of 8 runs; shore in 25% · 2 of 8. Wind arrows point downwind. Green arrows: predicted tidal current at 11:00 (NOAA), pointing where it sets. Blue outline: forecast course area. Grey dots: centres of the 13 J/70 races sailed here in 2026 (Helly Hansen regatta in May, AYC Fall Series), from tracking. — Course, wind and current at the first warning

Predicted tidal current from 09:00 to 16:30, flood positive. Tolly Point: slack 12:35. Thomas Point: max flood 0.3 kt 10:03, slack 12:45. — Predicted current

Race-day probabilities count equally weighted recent runs of the 3 km models (6 HRRR + 3 NAM 3 km; a time-lagged ensemble), which share errors, so treat 75% as "most runs agree", not a calibrated chance.
The 3 km models see the course at the edge of their resolution: side-to-side differences on a 1.2 nm beat are a lean, not a call.
Wind is the model's 10 m wind (about a J/70's masthead height) averaged over the course's water cells; the foot of the sails sees less, and HRRR surface gusts over water often run high.
Current is NOAA astronomical prediction at the two stations, without wind or river effects.
Global models are sampled at the course centre and scaled to the 3 km runs over the target window (ensembles: GEFS ×1.07, ECMWF ENS ×1.21; single runs: ECMWF IFS ×1.16, ECMWF AIFS ×1.80, GFS ×1.07; bounded 0.8–1.8). Days the 3 km runs cannot reach pool the two ensembles.

36 of 54 · 236 pts

Leader Sagara, 203 pts ahead
Next up Wild Child, 3 pts ahead
Next behind Osprey, 5 pts back

Latest race · Race 8

Sagara wins after the second beat reshuffles the fleet

Aquaholiks starts behind the line, then sails the beat faster than the fleet. Aquaholiks (USA 326) finished 38th for 38 points. It was 17 m behind the line at the gun, at the committee-boat end, moving at 3.8 knots. It ranked 35th at one minute and 31st at two minutes, made four tacks on leg 1 and rounded the second mark 33rd.

The race in the fleet analysis →

Fleet analysis · races 1–8

Every tracked boat, race by race: starts, gains and losses by leg, speed and height, handling and replay. Updated Mon, Nov 2, 1:01 PM.

Debrief · 2026-11-02

The regatta: a hard opening race, then a steady climb

Provisional: Yacht Scoring shows these results as Preliminary, and the label was unchanged at the last check on Monday afternoon.

Aquaholiks finishes 36th of 54 on 236 net points after eight races, with race 1 as the discard. You were 52nd after that first race and spent the regatta working back from it. Every day of racing scored better per race than the one before, and the overnight standing went from 43rd to 38th to 36th.

How each day moved you

Thursday went 52nd, 39th and 34th, better each time, but those 125 points still left you 43rd. Friday went 34th, 40th and 31st for 105 points. Nothing was worse than 40th, the 52 became your discard, and you moved up to 38th on 178.

Saturday had two races. The 20th in race 7 was your best result of the regatta and took you to 35th. The 38th in race 8 gave one of those places back, so you ended the day 36th, still two better than you started it. Yacht Scoring posted no races for Sunday, so Saturday night's order is the final one.

The discard, and what it left

Your scores added up to 288 before the discard, and throwing out the 52 brought that to 236. The worst race that counts is the 40th in race 5. Six of your seven counting races sit between 31st and 40th, and race 7 is the one that stands clear of that band.

The discard also decided your finish against Osprey. Osprey scored the same 288 before its discard, but its worst race was a 47th against your 52nd, and those five points are the whole gap that keeps you ahead. Wild Child dropped a 53rd from race 6, 286 down to 233.

Race 8 settled your group

After race 7 you had 13 points on Ayacucho, 15 on Wild Child and 26 on Osprey. Then Osprey finished 17th and Wild Child 20th while you were 38th and Ayacucho 39th. Wild Child went past and finished three points up, Osprey closed to five behind, and Ayacucho stayed back at 14 behind. Truckin' and Who Dat were five and eight points ahead before that race, and their 24th and 31st moved them out to 19 and 15.

Over the eight races you beat Osprey and Ayacucho six times each and split four-all with Truckin'. Wild Child and Who Dat each beat you five times to three. Boats you were level with earlier fell away by the end. Margaritaville, one point ahead on Thursday night, finished 50th, 88 points behind you. Phoenix, two behind on Friday night, ended 41st, 33 behind, and Coalition ended 40th, 31 behind.

Sagara won on 33 from OceanPact on 35 and GARM on 45. Fifth was 175 points from you and tenth 158, so the fair measure of your week is the group from Truckin' down to Ayacucho, where you finished in the middle.

Your boat page: https://leebow.dev/research/j70-north-americans-2026/fleet?boat=USA%20326

Since the last debrief

No race was rescored and no standing moved. Yacht Scoring's results have not changed since Saturday afternoon, and Monday's final check found them the same.

One correction to Sunday's note, which said you gave up nothing to this group on Saturday. Across Saturday's two races Osprey outscored you by six points and Wild Child by one. You gained on Truckin', Who Dat and Ayacucho.

Race by race

Race	Pts	Place	Behind winner
R1	(52)	52	+9:18
R2	39	39	+7:05
R3	34	34	+4:18
R4	34	34	+7:55
R5	40	40	+5:46
R6	31	31	+9:03
R7	20	20	+4:08
R8	38	38	+5:19

Compare

Against

Race	Aquaholiks	Wild Child
R1	(52)	39
R2	39	35
R3	34	29
R4	34	32
R5	40	41
R6	31	(53)
R7	20	37
R8	38	20

Standings

#	Boat	Net	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8
1	SagaraUSA 94	33	4	4	(26)	2	12	3	7	1
2	OceanPact641	35	(22)	1	7	11	1	4	9	2
3	GARM380	45	3	(20)	4	4	11	14	5	4
4	WickedUSA 56	61	(28)	11	10	1	4	16	1	18
5	Level5USA 684	61	12	5	(28)	8	2	9	15	10
6	ProgressUSA 385	74	1	12	1	(25)	23	15	13	9
7	EmpeiriaUSA 169	75	8	17	14	14	15	(24)	2	5
8	MINDSETBRA 1226	75	18	10	(24)	22	8	10	4	3
9	hedgehog (old NADS)USA 1513	75	20	14	8	6	14	(30)	6	7
10	SavasanaUSA 49	78	7	2	15	28	19	1	(28)	6
11	Midlife CrisisUSA 26	82	11	(24)	16	7	16	2	8	22
12	PATAKIN ESP 34ESP 34	84	5	8	6	21	(30)	17	14	13
13	Bazinga!USA 84	84	9	6	12	(37)	7	6	10	34
14	AretêBRA 226	93	2	18	11	27	3	8	24	(36)
15	TÔ NESSABRA 497	94	27	(34)	2	18	5	7	23	12
16	StampedeUSA 240	95	25	3	(27)	26	6	11	3	21
17	EllieUSA 419	103	19	7	17	5	27	(29)	12	16
18	JelvisGBR 1247	107	17	15	5	9	24	(28)	18	19
19	7th HeavenCAN 404	111	15	23	9	12	22	19	11	(32)
20	ElvisSwe 901	114	23	22	13	3	9	22	22	(33)
21	DJUSA 898	114	13	19	(32)	13	10	12	19	28
22	RowdyUSA 1562	116	10	16	3	10	25	25	27	(30)
23	TangerineUSA 353	136	14	25	18	(30)	20	5	25	29
24	What? NoooWaaay!USA 93	142	6	30	30	23	21	(42)	17	15
25	LiftedCAN 314	152	21	9	21	(45)	38	21	34	8
26	Vale NightBRA 1518	155	16	26	20	24	17	(39)	26	26
27	Good GuyUSA 1255	156	26	21	22	15	31	(37)	30	11
28	Wild CardUSA 40	156	30	13	19	(43)	26	27	16	25
29	ProofUSA 151	158	29	27	23	16	(42)	18	31	14
30	SitellaUSA 340	168	33	28	25	(42)	13	13	33	23
31	YolandaUSA 391	196	24	(37)	33	19	28	36	21	35
32	SurpriseUSA 14	210	31	31	31	(55 DNC)	35	26	29	27
33	Truckin’USA 343	217	34	40	(43)	29	18	34	38	24
34	Who DatUSA 551	221	35	29	41	20	33	(45)	32	31
35	Wild ChildUSA 389	233	39	35	29	32	41	(53)	37	20
36	AquaholiksUSA 326	236	(52)	39	34	34	40	31	20	38
37	OspreyUSA 5	241	40	43	39	35	(47)	32	35	17
38	AyacuchoUSA 2	250	37	46	42	17	(49)	33	36	39
39	Johnny ThunderUSA 209	259	32	44	37	38	(50)	20	48	40
40	CoalitionUSA 231	267	(49)	33	40	31	44	35	41	43
41	PhoenixUSA 220	269	48	32	38	(49)	39	23	47	42
42	Danger MouseUSA 363	280	42	41	35	41	(48)	41	39	41
43	MinimaxUSA 900	285	41	42	36	44	34	40	(52)	48
44	Miss KillerUSA 1029	297	36	47	44	36	45	(49)	45	44
45	Tea Dance SnakeUSA 381	299	44	55 DNF	(55 DNC)	40	29	50	44	37
46	Black PearlUSA 549	300	45	49	(51)	33	43	38	46	46
47	ToroUSA 54	301	50	38	45	47	36	43	42	(50)
48	CelerityUSA 15	315	(54)	53	49	39	32	44	53	45
49	Fuzz (AYC Junior Sailing)USA 593	321	43	45	47	48	(54)	51	40	47
50	MargaritavilleUSA 303	324	38	36	50	50	52	48	50	(52)
51	VOODEUXUSA 16	326	51	(52)	48	46	37	46	49	49
52	Kings PointUSA 1725	342	46	51	46	51	46	(52)	51	51
53	Derecho027	348	47	48	53	53	51	(54)	43	53
54	Foreign AffairsUSA 332	362	53	50	52	52	53	47	55 DNF	(55 DNC)

Scores as published by the scorer, which lists them as preliminary until the regatta is closed. Discards are in brackets. Starts, legs and speeds are in the fleet analysis, which adds each race once it is scored and matched to tracking.