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2026 Melges 24 Worlds · Little Traverse Bay · Part 2

What the wind changes.
What the numbers measure.

A local wind estimate and a consistent VMG calculation, with the uncertainty left visible.

Whole-leg results include routes and turns; steady VMG counts only straight-line sailing beside other boats on the same leg, each race weighted equally.

Include races

All races start included. Comparisons without sufficient evidence remain blank.

One measure, consistent aggregation

Matched steady sailing · local wind direction

100 is the reference and above 100 is better VMG. The reference is nearby boats sailing steadily on the same leg at the same moment.

WAH GWAN

103.4VMG index

9 of 9 comparison races with a result

89% of eligible steady samples matched · 91.1 minutes

±5° direction sensitivity: 102.0–104.8. This is not a confidence interval.

SHIITAKE

103.6VMG index

9 of 9 comparison races with a result

94% of eligible steady samples matched · 93.0 minutes

±5° direction sensitivity: 102.9–104.2. This is not a confidence interval.

Speed and direction, reconciled with VMG

Right is faster; up converts more of that speed into progress along the chosen direction. The curves are equal-VMG indices, calculated exactly from these two factors. Direction efficiency is a projection ratio, not a measured pointing angle.

9095100105110WAH GWAN: VMG 103.4, speed 102.0, direction 101.3; 9 racesSHIITAKE: VMG 103.6, speed 102.8, direction 100.7; 9 racesGAMECOCK: VMG 102.4, speed 100.5, direction 101.9; 9 racesWARCANOE: VMG 101.3, speed 99.7, direction 101.7; 9 racesDARK HORSE: VMG 103.5, speed 102.5, direction 101.0; 9 racesMAVI: VMG 103.1, speed 101.1, direction 102.0; 9 racesSENTINEL: VMG 102.5, speed 100.8, direction 101.7; 8 racesMUSTANG: VMG 99.7, speed 99.5, direction 100.1; 9 racesTHE 300: VMG 102.6, speed 102.7, direction 99.9; 9 racesFLYING JENNY: VMG 101.7, speed 99.9, direction 101.8; 9 racesSTRAIGHTARROW: VMG 101.5, speed 101.4, direction 100.0; 9 racesFULL THROTTLE: VMG 100.8, speed 101.0, direction 99.9; 9 racesLOOPER: VMG 100.8, speed 101.2, direction 99.6; 9 racesBIG CAT: VMG 100.0, speed 100.2, direction 99.8; 8 racesTROUBLEMAKER / GILL RACE TEAM: VMG 100.7, speed 97.3, direction 103.5; 9 racesTEAM BARBARIANS: VMG 99.2, speed 99.8, direction 99.4; 9 racesTAKEOFF: VMG 100.4, speed 99.3, direction 101.1; 9 racesZHIK RACE TEAM: VMG 98.2, speed 96.5, direction 101.8; 9 racesBOOGIEMAN: VMG 100.0, speed 95.9, direction 104.2; 9 racesTEAM BAGDAD PROSPECTS HELLY HANSEN: VMG 99.9, speed 102.3, direction 97.6; 9 racesSIN DUDA: VMG 99.0, speed 98.3, direction 100.7; 9 racesWOMBMATES RACING: VMG 101.5, speed 101.2, direction 100.3; 9 racesFLYING TOASTER: VMG 99.6, speed 97.6, direction 102.1; 9 racesSURPRISE: VMG 97.9, speed 100.5, direction 97.4; 8 racesRUSTLER: VMG 99.9, speed 97.1, direction 102.9; 9 racesBAD IDEA: VMG 98.8, speed 100.1, direction 98.7; 9 racesRUMBUNCTIOUS: VMG 99.2, speed 101.6, direction 97.6; 8 racesCLEAN BREAK: VMG 100.5, speed 101.2, direction 99.3; 9 racesSMILE AND WAVE: VMG 99.2, speed 98.6, direction 100.6; 7 racesZIG ZAG: VMG 100.5, speed 99.8, direction 100.6; 9 racesPCH: VMG 98.3, speed 99.9, direction 98.3; 9 racesRESPONSIBLY FUNDED: VMG 97.3, speed 99.6, direction 97.7; 8 racesRUSH: VMG 99.3, speed 100.6, direction 98.6; 9 racesOUTLIER: VMG 99.6, speed 101.3, direction 98.3; 8 racesTWO TRAILER PARK GIRLS: VMG 99.3, speed 98.3, direction 101.0; 8 racesGREEN: VMG 99.0, speed 99.2, direction 99.8; 9 racesNOTORIOUS: VMG 99.8, speed 96.5, direction 103.4; 5 racesTRAMP: VMG 99.0, speed 99.6, direction 99.5; 9 racesFIRE HORSE: VMG 99.4, speed 100.0, direction 99.4; 8 racesBBS BUS: VMG 98.8, speed 100.6, direction 98.2; 9 racesHOT WATER: VMG 97.1, speed 96.7, direction 100.4; 5 racesSIDE QUEST: VMG 99.2, speed 101.8, direction 97.5; 8 racesHONCHO: VMG 97.1, speed 101.3, direction 95.9; 9 races12HAPPYTHOUGHTS: VMG 103.2, speed 103.7, direction 99.6; 9 racesPULSE: VMG 100.5, speed 98.3, direction 102.3; 8 racesHUZZAH: VMG 98.0, speed 103.2, direction 95.0; 9 racesLAST WORD: VMG 98.2, speed 99.0, direction 99.2; 7 racesOXCART: VMG 96.3, speed 101.0, direction 95.3; 7 racesCOMMITTED: VMG 97.3, speed 108.1, direction 90.0; 6 racesWAH GWANSHIITAKESpeed relative to matched peers (%)Direction efficiency relative to peers (%)-10-1000+10+10
The plotted VMG value is the same equal-race mean used below. Direction efficiency is derived as VMG index ÷ speed index × 100, so the two factors reconcile exactly; it is not an independent angle median.

The race-by-race check

Same selected measure, same race cells. A blank means there is no qualifying result, not zero performance. Other boats may cover fewer races; compare their coverage before ranking them.

Matched steady sailing · local wind direction; equal-race mean in the Mean column
BoatR3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10R11MeanRacesSpeed indexDirection indexMatched / eligible min
WAH GWAN98.8107.2104.1104.8101.7101.4107.4103.5101.4103.49102.0101.391.1 / 102.0
SHIITAKE103.6106.4102.8102.2102.2104.7106.7102.2101.0103.69102.8100.793.0 / 98.5
GAMECOCK106.6108.0102.4101.998.8100.4101.9100.7101.0102.49100.5101.960.8 / 63.8
WARCANOE99.0104.699.5103.6102.7101.099.7102.998.8101.3999.7101.7120.6 / 128.6
DARK HORSE110.9103.5102.1101.699.8103.4103.4105.9101.2103.59102.5101.0102.8 / 108.0
MAVI107.1104.199.999.7103.9105.1101.5104.4101.9103.19101.1102.0112.0 / 118.3
SENTINEL—110.1101.9103.7103.698.799.2102.9100.3102.58100.8101.783.4 / 86.3
MUSTANG96.9102.2102.699.599.0101.696.599.499.299.7999.5100.1112.5 / 118.2
THE 30099.4103.998.4108.2102.4102.1103.1103.5102.1102.69102.799.980.1 / 83.3
FLYING JENNY98.6101.1100.9102.0101.4101.1107.1103.499.8101.7999.9101.879.5 / 82.3
STRAIGHTARROW99.3107.9101.399.799.3103.7102.599.999.6101.59101.4100.0107.4 / 115.1
FULL THROTTLE100.4104.8100.0103.6101.499.699.498.0100.2100.89101.099.9109.3 / 111.5
LOOPER102.1103.7102.999.198.2102.697.1100.4101.3100.89101.299.6106.1 / 108.3
BIG CAT—99.1102.299.298.7103.198.2100.099.7100.08100.299.882.6 / 87.3
TROUBLEMAKER / GILL RACE TEAM94.9101.298.4100.6100.8102.9105.9100.8100.7100.7997.3103.5130.8 / 138.7
TEAM BARBARIANS97.398.099.6101.797.999.9100.798.399.499.2999.899.4105.3 / 110.7
TAKEOFF99.998.598.997.5100.9101.6105.7103.597.0100.4999.3101.1104.4 / 106.0
ZHIK RACE TEAM97.9102.794.697.2100.596.098.496.799.698.2996.5101.897.1 / 99.9
BOOGIEMAN92.899.9103.199.4101.4102.3105.198.098.2100.0995.9104.289.9 / 91.7
TEAM BAGDAD PROSPECTS HELLY HANSEN96.798.695.998.4102.2101.7102.7102.4100.199.99102.397.692.0 / 93.1
SIN DUDA97.796.9100.299.799.998.397.7100.999.599.0998.3100.793.0 / 94.5
WOMBMATES RACING108.2101.0101.096.8101.1102.9102.6101.298.9101.59101.2100.3101.0 / 101.8
FLYING TOASTER97.499.0102.399.698.3101.998.3100.999.199.6997.6102.1104.7 / 108.6
SURPRISE—99.297.699.096.697.092.2100.2101.997.98100.597.4104.3 / 109.0
RUSTLER104.0101.2101.197.399.6100.599.996.898.799.9997.1102.9120.2 / 133.0
BAD IDEA98.999.495.6100.0100.897.995.3100.6100.798.89100.198.7127.5 / 132.2
RUMBUNCTIOUS—96.898.694.799.1103.5101.4100.798.899.28101.697.6116.4 / 127.0
CLEAN BREAK113.197.398.6103.4101.0100.099.991.4100.1100.59101.299.375.5 / 76.3
SMILE AND WAVE—100.798.1100.9100.3—96.796.6101.099.2798.6100.645.9 / 48.6
ZIG ZAG105.2101.499.9102.099.4100.394.2102.299.6100.5999.8100.6102.3 / 106.9
PCH96.6100.8100.197.2100.496.497.095.7100.498.3999.998.3104.6 / 111.7
RESPONSIBLY FUNDED91.198.7103.199.1100.496.095.694.3—97.3899.697.789.4 / 91.3
RUSH93.294.797.6103.697.595.7110.5101.599.199.39100.698.6121.0 / 128.4
OUTLIER—101.696.8100.5102.395.998.699.3101.999.68101.398.392.8 / 96.4
TWO TRAILER PARK GIRLS—94.7101.9100.198.399.2103.394.9101.899.3898.3101.094.5 / 98.1
GREEN94.597.2100.297.198.8101.7104.497.599.999.0999.299.8111.4 / 119.2
NOTORIOUS—103.5105.097.4—96.2——97.299.8596.5103.418.2 / 19.9
TRAMP103.797.698.0100.9102.098.497.793.999.199.0999.699.581.3 / 85.9
FIRE HORSE100.298.0102.1100.0101.5100.492.999.8—99.48100.099.4108.1 / 113.7
BBS BUS102.895.197.8100.298.1100.299.298.198.098.89100.698.2111.3 / 115.8
HOT WATER———94.198.498.797.9—96.497.1596.7100.415.3 / 15.3
SIDE QUEST—98.7100.797.799.4100.3100.796.1100.499.28101.897.595.9 / 100.2
HONCHO88.597.3102.396.397.898.694.498.1100.297.19101.395.9116.0 / 124.9
12HAPPYTHOUGHTS103.8107.199.2105.899.5100.0110.7101.0102.1103.29103.799.6103.2 / 107.9
PULSE105.097.0102.3100.699.098.5100.7101.3—100.5898.3102.382.7 / 89.2
HUZZAH97.597.298.691.697.597.3101.6101.0100.098.09103.295.0102.5 / 111.9
LAST WORD95.896.8101.5101.097.699.595.0——98.2799.099.248.9 / 55.6
OXCART94.292.198.692.296.197.9102.9——96.37101.095.3100.7 / 114.3
COMMITTED—97.0—95.198.088.3101.2104.2—97.36108.190.015.8 / 20.8

Does the answer depend on the wind neighborhood?

For WAH GWAN, this rebuilds the wind fit with its spatial and temporal support 25% narrower or wider. Peer distance stays at 600 metres. These choices can change which samples qualify, so the matched minutes are shown too. A large change is a reason to treat the result cautiously.

Wind-neighborhood sensitivity · WAH GWAN · downwind
RaceNarrow index / minDefault index / minWide index / min
R397.0 / 3.098.8 / 3.399.0 / 3.6
R4106.0 / 10.0107.2 / 10.2107.0 / 10.2
R5104.4 / 7.9104.1 / 8.3103.0 / 8.5
R6106.8 / 6.5104.8 / 7.0105.9 / 7.0
R7102.2 / 10.7101.7 / 11.3101.8 / 11.3
R8101.5 / 13.2101.4 / 13.2101.4 / 13.2
R9107.3 / 12.7107.4 / 12.8107.7 / 12.8
R10103.5 / 13.2103.5 / 14.5103.7 / 15.2
R11101.6 / 10.7101.4 / 10.7101.2 / 10.7

Inspect the evidence

Wind direction across the course

The map shows the fitted ground-referenced direction at supported locations. Empty areas have insufficient evidence. This fleet overview uses all donors; the performance calculations refit with the scored boat excluded.