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44Cup Marstrand 2026 · Part 2

What the wind changes.
What the numbers measure.

A local wind estimate and a consistent VMG calculation, with the uncertainty left visible.

Whole-leg results include tactical routes and turns. The speed-and-height view summarizes separate speed and angle medians. Here, steady VMG comes from each observed speed/course pair. The chart, race cells and summary use the same calculation and the same race weighting.

Include races

All nine races start included. The closing reach into Marstrand harbour in races 6 and 9 is neither a beat nor a run, so it is excluded from both steady-sailing samples and whole-leg comparisons; the four windward-leeward legs before it remain. Source wind is offshore context; the fitted wind is ground-referenced.

One measure, consistent aggregation

Matched steady sailing · local wind direction

100 is the reference. Above 100 means better VMG. Each reported race has equal weight: the selected-race mean must lie between that boat’s included race cells. The reference is the mean projection of at least three nearby boats sailing steadily on the same numbered leg at the same time. It excludes the boat being scored.

Team Charisma

99.9VMG index

8 of 8 comparison races with a result

76% of eligible steady samples matched · 59.2 minutes

±5° direction sensitivity: 99.3–100.6. This is not a confidence interval.

GeMera Racing

100.5VMG index

8 of 8 comparison races with a result

73% of eligible steady samples matched · 57.5 minutes

±5° direction sensitivity: 99.9–101.1. This is not a confidence interval.

Speed and direction, reconciled with VMG

Right is faster; up converts more of that speed into progress along the chosen direction. The curves are equal-VMG indices, calculated exactly from these two factors. Direction efficiency is a projection ratio, not a measured pointing angle.

9095100105110Team Charisma: VMG 99.9, speed 101.2, direction 98.8; 8 racesGeMera Racing: VMG 100.5, speed 99.4, direction 101.1; 8 racesAleph Racing: VMG 100.6, speed 100.1, direction 100.5; 8 racesBlack Star Sailing Team: VMG 101.2, speed 100.6, direction 100.6; 8 racesTeam Nika: VMG 101.2, speed 101.8, direction 99.4; 8 racesArtemis Racing: VMG 98.1, speed 99.1, direction 99.0; 7 racesPeninsula Racing: VMG 98.9, speed 100.1, direction 98.8; 8 racesTeam Aqua: VMG 99.7, speed 99.6, direction 100.1; 7 racesWOW! Sailing Team: VMG 98.9, speed 98.0, direction 100.9; 8 racesGeMera RacingTeam CharismaSpeed relative to matched peers (%)Direction efficiency relative to peers (%)-10-1000+10+10
The plotted VMG value is the same equal-race mean used below. Direction efficiency is derived as VMG index ÷ speed index × 100, so the two factors reconcile exactly; it is not an independent angle median.

The race-by-race check

Same selected measure, same race cells. A blank means there is no qualifying result, not zero performance. Other boats may cover fewer races; compare their coverage before ranking them.

Matched steady sailing · local wind direction; equal-race mean in the Mean column
BoatR1R2R3R4R5R7R8R9MeanRacesSpeed indexDirection indexMatched / eligible min
Team Charisma97.9101.2100.8101.9102.094.999.9100.999.98101.298.859.2 / 77.5
GeMera Racing101.0100.498.9100.5101.1101.9102.397.8100.5899.4101.157.5 / 79.1
Aleph Racing100.5100.699.9101.299.799.7103.799.5100.68100.1100.555.3 / 78.2
Black Star Sailing Team101.4100.1103.0100.7101.6103.798.8100.4101.28100.6100.660.1 / 82.2
Team Nika104.997.299.1104.599.1102.798.4103.8101.28101.899.459.5 / 81.8
Artemis Racing98.999.796.796.799.9—97.896.998.1799.199.055.8 / 77.0
Peninsula Racing100.299.0100.297.497.896.3100.0100.698.98100.198.855.8 / 79.1
Team Aqua98.199.8103.1100.998.5—98.898.899.7799.6100.153.4 / 83.4
WOW! Sailing Team99.499.097.998.698.3100.698.698.898.9898.0100.956.6 / 81.9

Does the answer depend on the wind neighborhood?

For Team Charisma, this rebuilds the wind fit with its spatial and temporal support 25% narrower or wider. Peer distance stays at 600 metres. These choices can change which samples qualify, so the matched minutes are shown too. A large change is a reason to treat the result cautiously.

Wind-neighborhood sensitivity · Team Charisma · downwind
RaceNarrow index / minDefault index / minWide index / min
R198.3 / 9.297.9 / 9.898.4 / 10.3
R2100.7 / 8.3101.2 / 10.0101.7 / 10.0
R399.9 / 5.9100.8 / 7.9100.8 / 9.3
R4102.1 / 7.2101.9 / 7.8101.9 / 7.8
R5102.4 / 4.6102.0 / 4.9101.9 / 4.9
R797.4 / 1.094.9 / 1.897.8 / 2.8
R8100.5 / 8.199.9 / 9.899.7 / 10.5
R998.7 / 4.9100.9 / 7.3101.1 / 8.2

Inspect the evidence

Wind direction across the course

The map shows the fitted ground-referenced direction at supported locations. Empty areas have insufficient evidence. This fleet overview uses all donors; the performance calculations refit with the scored boat excluded.